Australia Solidifies Taiwan's WBC Curse Theory
The second spot in Pool C will be a free-for-all fight, assuming Japan takes the top spot
In my first draft of this article, the title was “South Korea Will Shape Taiwan’s WBC Run.” Had Team Taiwan won the World Baseball Classic (WBC) opener against Australia as expected,1 the rational strategy would then be to put all efforts into beating South Korea. Japan, armed with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and other MLB heavyweights, is expected to cruise through the pool; Czechia, though an exciting up-and-comer, is still no match for Taiwan.
The Taiwanese simultaneously underestimate and overrate their national team. Depending on the outcome of international games, the popular sentiment swings wildly between “Taiwan is not a major baseball nation” to “Taiwan has the best team in the world” in a matter of hours. The accurate view is, of course, somewhere in the middle. My sense is that Taiwan historically outperforms in tournaments that are underweighted by other countries (e.g., youth competition, Little League, WBSC events) and underperforms or, perhaps, performs as one should reasonably expect in ones that are more universally important (e.g., WBC, Olympics).
Taiwan’s loss to Australia casts doubt on Taiwan’s standing in the baseball world.2 For those who have not swung to the pessimistic “not a major baseball nation” camp, many are in the “best in the world, but cursed in the WBC” phase right now. Without delving into that topic, let us focus on some direct observations from the game.
Bazzana shines
All eyes were on Travis Bazzana heading into Wednesday game in Tokyo, and he delivered. The 2024 No. 1 MLB draft pick led off for Australia.3 He hit 2-for-4 including a solo home run in the seventh inning. A top-20 prospect, Bazzana continues to grow the hype around him, and his first appearance in the WBC absolutely contributed to Australia’s win over Taiwan.
In his second at-bat he hit a single off Taiwan’s starter Jo-Hsi Hsu. Even when he could not find a hit, he put the ball in play against some of the best Taiwanese pitchers. Defensively, Bazzana shined as well, making an impressive diving play in the fourth inning.
Alex Wells vs. cold bats
Taiwan’s collapse was especially surprising because of the conscious decision not to underestimate Australia. Jo-Hsi Hsu, one of the team’s ace pitchers alongside Ruei-Yang Gu Lin, was the starting pitcher. Hsu’s international free agent season with the Wei Chuan Dragons last year culminated in a high-profile deal with NPB’s SoftBank Hawks.
Yet, Hsu was outmatched by Australian lefthander Alex Wells, former Baltimore Orioles pitcher (2-3 career record) who plays for the Sydney Blue Sox. Wells pitched three scoreless innings and did not give up a hit. He struck out five Taiwanese hitters in a row in the second and third innings and effectively shut down Taiwan’s offense early in the game.
Wells’ dominance on the mound was accentuated by a struggling offense that has failed to generate runs leading up to the tournament. In the tune-up series against the SoftBank Hawks and Nippon-Ham Fighters in Taipei, Team Taiwan lost both games and scored a total of just one run. In the first game, where Jo-Hsi Hsu started for the Hawks, the team generated just two hits and struck out eight times. In the 6-1 loss to the Fighters, the team generated five hits and struck out 12 times.
Even though Taiwan’s batting seemed to heat up against the SoftBank Hawks’ farm team in the official warmup game in Mizayaki, extra-base hits were notably missing. The cold bats again failed to contribute on Wednesday, and Australia’s legion of lefthanders (Wells, Jack O’Loughlin, and Jon Kennedy) ultimately capitalized on this collective slump.
The depth problem
Injuries should not make or break a theoretical all-star team. With a full-fledged professional league in the CPBL, there should be plenty of top-level replacements for each position. While the withdrawal of Jonathon Long, a top Chicago Cubs prospect and excellent hitter, was meaningful, there were already plenty of contenders for the first base and DH spots. Designated hitter An-Ko Lin and Kungkuan Giljegiljaw, who pinch-hit for first baseman Nien-Ting Wu, both managed to get on base against Australia, but that was not enough.
Hao-Yu Lee’s was a more difficult situation, withdrawing hours before the first game due to oblique tightness. However, these are two spots out of the nine starting lineup and 30-man roster. The rest of the lineup still failed to generate any runs in a game that Taiwan was projected to win handedly. With captain Chieh-Hsien Chen expected to be out after sustaining a finger fracture, Taiwan’s depth problem, particularly in hitting, is only going to look worse against Japan and South Korea.
Cursed or not good?
So, is this a team that is supposed to be the best in recent years that is just experiencing a string of bad luck? Or, is it simply a bad team?
The bad luck is apparent. Specific to this year’s WBC, Long’s injury during spring training and Lee’s withdraw hours before the first game cannot be overlooked. Chieh-Hsien Chen’s injury can only be characterized as another unfortunate blow to team morale. All this adds credence to the theory that Taiwan is cursed at the WBC.
But there are also other considerations. Regression to the mean from the heights of winning of the 2024 Premier12 should be expected, and perhaps the mean here is just a worse team than what fans had hoped to see. If anything, not making it past the WBC pool stage reflects the historical norm for Taiwan.
The makeup of the team this year notably overweighs players abroad, with nearly half of the roster coming from foreign leagues in Japan or the U.S. and many of them joining training camp late. Even though most of these foreign-league players are pitchers, one can argue that the increased roster uncertainty (and disruption from injuries) based on this makeup hindered the team’s preparation phase.
Lastly, tournament play is naturally unpredictable, and the best team does not always win. It is difficult to interpret the results based on just one game then try to infer future performance. As unlikely as it is, the calculus changes yet again if Taiwan beats Japan. If Taiwan’s struggling bats manage to come alive against 2025 World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto and win that game, then the opening loss to Australia will be a forgotten footnote.
MLB’s Will Leitch had Australia at No. 16, solidly below Taiwan in his power rankings. Taiwan was the favorite in all major sportsbooks heading into the game on Wednesday.
Taiwan certainly is not No. 2 in the world, as the WBSC rankings, which take into account U-12/15/18 and regional tournaments, suggest.
Stuart Fairchild, fellow member of the Cleveland Guardians organization, led off for Taiwan.